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On December 11, 2024, the A-share market showed a trend of shrinking and oscillating differentiation. Judging from the performance of the index, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.29% to close at 3,432.49 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.33% to close at 10,848.42 points; The GEM index fell 0.11% to close at 2,261.58 points, and the turnover of the two cities decreased by 423.845 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a total turnover of 1,776.377 billion yuan.From the news, the Central Economic Work Conference was held from December 11th to 12th, which set a "positive" tone for next year and is expected to boost market confidence. The meeting demanded that fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, quality and efficiency should be improved, and monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, accurate and effective, which is of great significance for consolidating the stable and sound foundation of macro-economy. In addition, the December meeting of the Federal Reserve on interest rates is approaching. According to the interest rate observation tool of the CME Federal Reserve, the probability of maintaining the current benchmark interest rate unchanged is 44.1%, and the probability of continuing to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is 55.9%. The result of the meeting will have an impact on global capital flows and market sentiment.From the perspective of sectors and capital flow, the most capital inflows in concept stocks are virtual reality, AI glasses, low-priced stocks, Xiaomi concept, smart wear, etc., with inflows of 3.808 billion, 3.739 billion, 3.672 billion, 3.40 billion and 2.861 billion respectively; The concept sectors such as margin financing and securities lending, artificial intelligence, Shenzhen Stock Connect, robot concept and FTSE Russell have more capital outflows. In terms of industry sectors, the most capital inflows are communication equipment, optical optoelectronics, consumer electronics, non-ferrous metals and cultural media. Software development, internet services, special equipment, auto parts and general equipment are the most outflows. The sectors with the highest increase are commercial department stores, real estate development, auto services, jewelry and consumer electronics. The sectors with the largest decline are insurance, banking, non-metallic materials, motors and batteries.

From a technical point of view, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,432.49 points on December 11th. In the short term, the market is still in a volatile pattern, but attention should be paid to the 5-minute level adjustment and the support level of 3,227 points. If the market can remain strong for half an hour after opening tomorrow, and the volume can be enlarged, it is expected to continue its upward trend. On the contrary, if there is a low opening and insufficient quantity and energy, the market may face downward adjustment pressure.From the perspective of sectors and capital flow, the most capital inflows in concept stocks are virtual reality, AI glasses, low-priced stocks, Xiaomi concept, smart wear, etc., with inflows of 3.808 billion, 3.739 billion, 3.672 billion, 3.40 billion and 2.861 billion respectively; The concept sectors such as margin financing and securities lending, artificial intelligence, Shenzhen Stock Connect, robot concept and FTSE Russell have more capital outflows. In terms of industry sectors, the most capital inflows are communication equipment, optical optoelectronics, consumer electronics, non-ferrous metals and cultural media. Software development, internet services, special equipment, auto parts and general equipment are the most outflows. The sectors with the highest increase are commercial department stores, real estate development, auto services, jewelry and consumer electronics. The sectors with the largest decline are insurance, banking, non-metallic materials, motors and batteries.

Prospect of tomorrow's marketFrom the news, the Central Economic Work Conference was held from December 11th to 12th, which set a "positive" tone for next year and is expected to boost market confidence. The meeting demanded that fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened, quality and efficiency should be improved, and monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, accurate and effective, which is of great significance for consolidating the stable and sound foundation of macro-economy. In addition, the December meeting of the Federal Reserve on interest rates is approaching. According to the interest rate observation tool of the CME Federal Reserve, the probability of maintaining the current benchmark interest rate unchanged is 44.1%, and the probability of continuing to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is 55.9%. The result of the meeting will have an impact on global capital flows and market sentiment.Analysis on the trend of A shares on December 11th, 2024.